To say Los Cabos is experiencing rapid population growth is an understatement. Between 2010 and 2020, the population in the municipality that is home to the cape cities of Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo grew by 47%, increasing from 238,487 residents to 351,111. In comparison, México’s population as a whole grew slightly more than 11% during the decade 2010 to 2020.
However, it should be noted that this Los Cabos population explosion is nothing compared to the population explosion in 2000 to 2010 when the growth rate reached 126%. Yes, the population in Los Cabos has more than doubled in 10 years, growing from 105,469 residents to 238,487. These numbers also pale in comparison to the previous decade (1990 to 2000) when Los Cabos’ growth rate was an astonishing 140% — as the city’s population increased from just 43,920 residents to over 100,000 (105,469 to be exact).
Is this growth sustainable?
These numbers are from the 2023 Gobierno de Baja California Sur Ministry of Tourism and Economy the report on Los Cabos paints a remarkable picture. From 1990 to 2020, the population increased from 40,000 to more than 350,000. Nearly half of Baja California Sur residents (44%) now live in Los Cabos, one of five cities across the state.
If you’ve been vacationing in Los Cabos for a while and feel like the destination looks completely different every time you visit, you’re not alone in this perception. Of course, local residents could see more clearly what was happening, as they saw it every day. Construction projects are now mushrooming in cape cities, and every time we walk or drive past new apartment buildings, hotels and resorts, real estate developments, and golf courses, we see them getting closer to completion – with more and more projects underway will be finished soon. .
Phenomenal growth like this raises some serious questions. The first thing that comes to mind is: Is this sustainable? It’s hard to believe considering that Los Cabos is already experiencing a water supply deficit. According to City Development Plan (City Development Plan) for 2021 to 2024 released by the Los Cabos government, the local aquifer cannot recharge fast enough to meet demand. Of course other majors desalinization plant it’s expected to go online next year, but that brings other problems. For starters, it will kill a lot of fish. You know, the first reason tourists come to Los Cabos.
The chicken or the egg?
Another question is: Is the phenomenal surge in tourism in recent years driving population growth through demand for new workers, or is it the opposite? Does the surge in workforce make new projects easier to achieve? It’s complicated, but the number of tourists, like the population, continues to increase. As Rodrigo Esponda, Managing Director of the Los Cabos Tourism Board said The Age of the Journey to the West34% more people visited Los Cabos this year than five years ago, and the average daily resort room rate jumped 60% in the same time frame. Los Cabos is very popular, this is reflected in the hospitality and construction sectors, which are the sectors with the largest number of local jobs (38.5% and 15.5%respectively in 2019) were found.
Los Cabos Demographics
Where do all the new people moving to Los Cabos come from? The number coming from the US is less than you might think. Despite all the real estate sales and the growth of the digital nomad lifestyle alone 1,452 of the 63,440 new residents from 2015 to 2020 came from the US. Yes, this number is much more than any other country. Cuba was the second country with the largest number of Los Cabos residents born abroad during that period, namely 144 people. However, it is worth noting that the expatriate population has remained very stable in recent years.
Just ended 17,400 extranjero live in Los Cabos (more than 10,000 of whom are from the US), and another 1,700 are from the US living on temporary work permits. Thus, US expats make up only about 3% of the local population, and foreign-born residents make up about 5% overall.
Most residents of Baja California Sur (55.8%) moved from another Mexican state. Of course, many come in search of better opportunities and higher-paying jobs in Los Cabos’ booming tourism sector. Guerrero, Sinaloa, and Estado de México account for about half of these new arrivals – with Los Cabos’ population now having more men than women (180,944 versus 170,167). This population, in general, is still relatively young. Top two age range represented 25 to 29 years old and 29 to 34 years old, as would be expected considering the influx of workers from other regions of México.
Which city in Los Cabos is growing the fastest?
Although Los Cabos has experienced it rapid population growth sustainable for decades, it has not been shown to be consistent for all towns and cities (there are only two of them: Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo) located within the municipal boundaries. Small communities such as Buenavista, Miraflores, and Santiago experienced marginal growth or, in one case, negative growth. Santiago’s population decreased by 139 residents from 2010 to 2020, down from 783 to 684. Meanwhile, the agricultural community around Miraflores increased by 28 residents in the same decade. Buenavista, in the East Cape, added just 12.
It is in these cities that growth is clearly visible. Between 2010 and 2020, the population of San José del Cabo almost doubled, from 69,788 to 136,285. However, those numbers pale in comparison to Cabo San Lucas, whose population nearly tripled in the same time period, jumping from 68,463 to 202,694. Cabo San Lucas, which is usually smaller than San José del Cabo, has now surpassed the cape in size.
Will growth continue?
Los Cabos’ runaway growth shows no signs of improving slow down. According to Cuahtémoc Carmona Álvarez, general director of the municipality of Desarrollo Social (Social Development), the population of Los Cabos, based on current estimates, is projected to reach between 700,000 and 800,000 by 2040. This means that its population will double. Again.
Chris Sandis a local Cabo San Lucas expert for the USA Today 10 Best travel website, author of Fodor’s Los Cabos travel guide, and contributor to numerous websites and publications, including Tasting Table, Marriott Bonvoy Traveler, Forbes Travel Guide, Porthole Cruise, Cabo Living and Daily Mexico News. He specializes in travel-related content and lifestyle features focused on food, wine and golf.
