Israel has not claimed Haniyeh’s death, although it did claim responsibility for the killing of a Hezbollah commander a day earlier. What’s up with that?
Van Veen: ‘We can assume that Israel is behind the assassination of Haniyeh. The alternative would be the United States, also an enemy of Iran. But the United States has been trying to prevent an escalation in the region for months.
‘There are tactical reasons for Israel not to claim responsibility for the assassination. First, it gives Iran an escape route from further escalation: if Israel is not officially held responsible, Iran is not necessarily forced to strike back with force. On the other hand, if Iran decides to take harsh measures, Netanyahu can turn it around and use it as evidence for his claim that Iran is the instigator of all ills in the region.
About the Author
Dana Holscher is a news reporter for of Volkskrant.
Do you think Iran will use this escape route to avoid further escalation?
Van Veen: ‘Iran will have to respond anyway. This assassination is too provocative for that. Israel is showing the middle finger to Tehran by eliminating Haniyeh on Iranian soil. They could have killed him elsewhere. The fact that such a hole has been created in Iran’s national security is quite humiliating for Tehran.
‘An Iranian response could well take a few days or weeks. As with the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, Iran will respond in a measured manner and coordinate with its allies Hamas and Hezbollah. They may opt for a symbolic counter-reaction, which remains to be seen. In any case, Israel will be on high alert for the foreseeable future.’
What are the implications of Haniyeh’s assassination for negotiations between Israel and Hamas?
Van Veen: ‘It seems to me that that is off the table. Netanyahu had been trying to frustrate and delay those negotiations for months. He has no political interest in continuing the talks. His far-right coalition partners are continually pressuring him to continue the war.
“Now Netanyahu has killed the political face of Hamas, the party he is supposedly negotiating with. Moreover, the attack is a deliberate attempt at sabotage by Israel to thwart a possible normalization between Iran and the United States. I do not expect any major reaction from Hamas itself. They will appoint a new political leader and return to normality. They do not have many other options.”
