All the signs are green for the prisoner exchange regarding Evan Gershkovich

Jem Boet

He will be released. Or rather, he will be released. At least, that is what everything seems to indicate now. The signs have been green for some time, but it now appears that Russia and the West will very soon proceed with a large-scale prisoner exchange, possibly involving between twenty and thirty political prisoners and journalists currently in Russian cells. According to various reports, one of them is the American journalist Evan Gershkovich.

The reporter of The Wall Street Journal He was suddenly sentenced to sixteen years in prison two weeks ago on unfounded espionage charges. The haste with which the verdict was pronounced was already fodder for rumours, which only began to accelerate when, a few days later, it emerged that another journalist, the Russian-American Alsu Kumarsheva, had also been secretly and without warning sentenced to 6.5 years in prison for “knowingly spreading false information about the Russian military”.

Ten prominent political prisoners

In short, there was something in the air, analysts and Kremlin watchers were quick to conclude. A suspicion that only grew this week when it emerged that at least ten prominent political prisoners had been transferred to unknown locations in Russia. They include Putin critics and opposition politicians Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin, who were sentenced to 25 and 8.5 years in prison respectively for criticising Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But the names of dissidents such as Oleg Orlov, co-chair of the Russian human rights organisation Memorial, opposition politician Lilya Chenysheva and several people who previously worked for the organisation of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny are also mentioned.

According to international media, the prisoner exchange was negotiated between Russia and Belarus on the one hand, and the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Slovenia on the other. Although none of these countries has made an official statement, comments are leaking here and there from diplomats and other interested parties. This was stated by the lawyer of a Russian prisoner in the US to the state news agency. Ria Novosti that he cannot say anything about his client’s location “until the exchange takes place.”

Government aircraft

Russian cable channels also report that special government planes have flown to the places where the prisoners in question were being held in recent days. The plane’s destinations are believed to include Moscow and Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave between Lithuania and Poland.

What was also surprising was that Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko this week pardoned a German prisoner sentenced to death. Rico Krieger was said to be guilty of terrorism and espionage and was therefore due to be executed, but on Tuesday that decision was overturned thanks to a presidential pardon. Once again, that decision fueled speculation that Krieger would be part of an upcoming prisoner exchange.

On the other side of the coin, there is also no shortage of indications that a deal between Moscow and the West is in the works. For example, a court in Slovenia sentenced a Russian couple to more than a year and a half in prison on Wednesday for spying for Russia, but shortly afterwards the court unexpectedly announced that the couple would be immediately deported from the country. Finally, information on four Russian prisoners in US cells also disappeared from the US prison authority’s database on Wednesday. They were serving sentences for, among other things, cybercrime and money laundering.

None of this has been confirmed yet, but it seems that everyone has taken their position to close a deal. If this happens, it would be the biggest prisoner exchange between Russia and the West since the Cold War.

Read also:

American journalist Gershkovich sentenced to 16 years in prison in Russia for espionage

A Russian court on Friday sentenced American journalist Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in prison for espionage.

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