northSeveral months into the Gaza war, the complete “destruction” of Hamas is nowhere in sight. According to figures released by the Israeli military on Tuesday, fourteen thousand Hamas fighters have been arrested or killed. That amounts to about half of the estimated total number of Hamas fighters. The number of senior Hamas commanders is also said to have been halved as a result of the months of bombing. These figures cannot be verified.
As a middle ground, they are open to two interpretations. On the one hand, the numbers make it clear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s original goal (to completely eliminate the militant movement) at this rate will still require months, if not years, of bloody fighting, with an ever-increasing number of civilian deaths (over 38,000). Seen in this light, this war borders on a mission Impossible.
About the Author
Jenne Jan Holtland is a Middle East correspondent for of Volkskrant. Lives in Beirut. Previously, he was a correspondent for Central and Eastern Europe.
Meanwhile, there is a growing sense within the Israeli army that Hamas is finding itself in increasing trouble, an independent newspaper reported. Ha’aretz Wednesday. A large number of the group’s tunnels have reportedly been destroyed in recent weeks, and pressure from Hamas commanders on its leader Yahya Sinwar to be more flexible at the negotiating table is said to have increased. US CIA Director William Burns said this week that he shared that assessment.
Some will argue that this is wishful thinking, because at the same negotiating table an agreement on a prisoner exchange (and a ceasefire) is still miles away. The main obstructionist at the moment is not Hamas but Prime Minister Netanyahu. Frustration about this within the Israeli political establishment is growing. Earlier this month, Israel’s negotiators received what they said was “the best response” so far from Hamas. Netanyahu then submitted additional demands, thereby torpedoing the chances of a deal.
Save time
Buying time seems to be Netanyahu’s most important consideration. If he signs a ceasefire, it will mean the end of his governing coalition: far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich (Finance) and Itamar Ben-Gvir (National Security) have announced that they will blow up the cabinet in such a case, which would seal Netanyahu’s exit. The way is then open for the Prime Minister to be tried for a fraud case.
Moreover, the US presidential election is approaching and Netanyahu is probably hoping to strike a better deal with Donald Trump in the White House. “Netanyahu can continue the negotiation game indefinitely,” Israeli political sociologist Lev Grinberg (Ben Gurion University) scoffs in a recent op-ed.
The prime minister has this rigid attitude in common with Hamas leader Sinwar. He is also in no hurry. In several leaked messages, Sinwar called the tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths “necessary sacrifices.” He compared them to the losses suffered by Algeria during the Franco-Algerian colonial war (1954-1962).
Famine
Ordinary Gazans are paying the price for this cynicism. The number of emergency trucks entering the occupied lane is less than a tenth of what is needed. According to estimates by aid organisations, almost a quarter of the population is heading for “catastrophic” food insecurity this summer (which could lead to mass deaths). Another 33 per cent suffer from “major gaps” in their diet and are therefore also in the risk category.
An Israeli airstrike last Saturday killed ninety people, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. It was one of the bloodiest attacks since the start of the war, targeting an area (al-Mawasi) that Israel had explicitly labeled as “safe.” According to the Wall Street Journal Eight bombs weighing one tonne each were deployed, leaving a large crater. “I saw a pregnant woman lying on the ground, bleeding between her legs,” witness Waad Abu Zaher told the television station. Al Jazeera“She was lying next to an injured child who had lost an arm.”
The reason for the heavy artillery was the alleged presence of Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’s armed wing and mastermind of the October 7 terror attack. The Israeli military initially claimed he had been killed, but there is no evidence. Hamas itself says he is alive and well. Since the group wants to prevent Israel from scoring a public relations victory at all times, it will maintain that view for as long as possible.
There is no way out of the quagmire in sight. Prime Minister Netanyahu will address the US Congress next Wednesday, but he is not expected to announce a major change of course. Relations between him and the US government have deteriorated, and his visit will be primarily aimed at smoothing them over. For a politician in need, his own survival comes first. By that logic, Gaza can wait.