Near East and Middle East: step by step

Robert Novoski

2024-10-02T213243Z_609304708_RC2KCAABLAMT_RTRMADP_3_OIL-OPEC-IRA

Raheb Homavandi/REUTERS

Possible targets of attack: Iranian oil production platforms in the Persian Gulf (July 25, 2005)

The Middle East is on the verge of escalating into another war, and the Israeli government wants to force a reorganization of the region over the next 50 years. This is what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Joaw Gallant announced after the attack on the Gaza Strip on October 7 2023. Netanyahu combined this with the demand that the whole world now has a duty to support Israel’s “operations” and “maintain Israel’s unity of action.” So far, only America is taking this seriously.

Currently, the world is anxiously awaiting Israel’s “counterattack” after Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles at targets spread across most of Israel on Tuesday evening. The immediate consequence was that warning sirens sounded across the country and several million Israelis had to flee into bunkers.

Dead Washington Post reported on Friday, based on an extensive investigation, that at least two dozen rockets had penetrated Israeli air defenses backed by the United States, Britain and Jordan and exploded near the Mossad headquarters and two military bases. 20 rockets hit the Nevatim air base area in the southern Negev and two rockets hit the Tel Nof base in central Israel. However, there are no known facts that contradict the Israeli Air Force’s official statement that no aircraft were hit and that military aviation operations – namely attacks on Lebanon and the Gaza Strip – were not disrupted. Experience shows that long-term damage or killed and wounded soldiers cannot be kept secret for long in Israel.

That’s from Washington Post The reported results still fall short of the official statement by the Revolutionary Guards responsible for the attack that 90 percent of the rockets had reached their targets. Apparently, Operation Fulfilling Promise II was more successful than its April predecessor, where only seven of more than 300 projectiles made it through and had no significant impact. At the time, Iran mostly used drones, which were relatively easy for defense systems to detect and destroy. This time rockets dominated, including some at supersonic speeds.

Israel immediately announced “serious and significant” retaliation. However, the details of the planning are not yet known. Israeli media speculated about massive airstrikes against Iranian infrastructure, particularly for the extraction and processing of oil and natural gas. The Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities would also be a plausible target, as Israel has repeatedly threatened to destroy them for more than 20 years. “Targeted killings” are also being discussed.

The US government has pledged active participation: “We have made it clear that there will be consequences for this attack,” the president’s national security adviser, Jacob Sullivan, commented on Iran’s “retaliatory attack” on Tuesday. “We will work with Israel to ensure that happens.” This “coordination” not only involved the US government behind the scenes but also openly revealed that attacks on the oil and gas industry and facilities of the US nuclear program were inadvisable. According to The Age of Israel The commander of US forces in the Middle East, General Michael Erik Kurilla, arrived in Israel to consult with military representatives during preparations.

Iran’s leading politicians and military officials assured that they would respond more harshly and forcefully to Israel’s “counterattack”. The deputy head of the Revolutionary Guards, General Ali Fadavi, told Lebanese television channels Al-Majadin on Friday that if Israel “makes a mistake,” “we will target all their energy resources, power plants, refineries and natural gas fields.” It remains doubtful whether Iran is capable of doing this. However, it seems certain that there will be another Israeli “counterattack”.

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