By Michael Erman
(Reuters) – RSV vaccine sales in the US from GSK and Pfizer (NYSE:) fell significantly after regulators narrowed the age group it targets and said it’s a once-in-a-lifetime shot for now, excluding the millions of people who got it last year.
Some independent pharmacists say demand during the fall vaccination season for respiratory virus shots has fallen by as much as two-thirds from last year. So far, the volumes reported by health data company IQVIA and published in several Wall Street analyst notes have more or less matched those numbers.
The vaccinations are important for Pfizer and GSK as they look to build new franchises before their top-selling drugs face generic competition at the end of the decade.
Pfizer is also competing with activist investor Starboard Value and weakening demand for its COVID products has caused its share price to drop to about half its pandemic high. It also forced the New York-based drugmaker to announce two separate cost-cutting plans totaling more than $5.5 billion.
Chief Executive Albert Bourla was disappointed about the 2023 launch of Abrysvo’s RSV shot, but the company has expressed optimism about the vaccine in the US this year.
Erin Fox, a professor at the University of Utah who helps manage the university health system’s pharmacy, traced slow demand for RSV to the administration’s decision in June to narrow the pool of eligible recipients compared to last year when RSV was launched.
“I think we will see fewer patients who fall into the category of needing a vaccine. “You have all that pent-up demand, now there’s definitely going to be fewer patients getting vaccinated,” Fox said.
Jefferies analyst Peter Welford, in a note last week, said activity so far suggests that GSK’s Arexvy sales may have missed Wall Street expectations in the third quarter.
The RSV season usually starts in October.
A GSK spokesperson said 9 million Americans, or two-thirds of the market, have been vaccinated against RSV with Arexvy and the company sees opportunities for strong growth in the Americas and globally. According to US estimates, about 24% of adults over the age of 60 got a shot last year, including more than 30% of adults aged 70 and over.
“We continue to expect Arexvy to generate peak year sales of 3 billion pounds ($3.92 billion),” a GSK spokesman said.
Pfizer declined to comment for this story.
GSK HOLDS ITS LEADERSHIP
Last year, an average of about 440,000 people a week got GSK or Pfizer RSV shots in September, about 65% of whom received GSK’s Arexvy, according to IQVIA data reported by analysts. This September, the average was about 157,000 people per week.
Leading US pharmacies including CVS Health (NYSE:) and Walgreens declined to comment on their volume.
David Kohll of Kohll’s Pharmacy, which has locations in Nebraska and Iowa, said his vaccine orders were down 65% in August and September compared to last year.
Steve Moore, pharmacist and owner of Condo Pharmacy in Plattsburgh, New York, said volumes are decreasing.
“People who are pro-vaccine and interested in the vaccine, they’ve probably already gotten it,” Moore said.
Its pharmacies administered the majority of RSV vaccinations last year at events where large numbers of people received shots. “I’ll get the first one,” Moore said. “Instead of 80 people, I have six.”
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the shot should be used by adults aged 75 and older, as well as those aged 60 to 74 and at high risk for severe RSV due to medical conditions. Last year, he was actually over 60 years old.
The UK and Canada have also started providing vaccines to their citizens, with the UK targeting those aged 75 to 79 with the Pfizer shot.
The CDC has classified the shot as a one-shot vaccine, although the company plans to provide more data on the benefits of revaccination.
GSK presented data on Tuesday showing that Arexvy was still about 43% effective in preventing severe disease through the third RSV season.
Last year, GSK won two-thirds of the market, largely because of its contracts with retail pharmacies. So far this year, the company has maintained its dominant position, with Pfizer taking over some of its shares in recent weeks.
In 2023, GSK’s Arexvy accounted for sales of 1.2 billion pounds ($1.57 billion), while Pfizer’s Abrysvo accounted for $890 million. GSK’s sales are expected to fall slightly this year to about 1.15 billion pounds, while Pfizer’s sales are expected to rise almost 40% to $1.2 billion.
Modern mResvia (NASDAQ:) was approved in May, but its third entry into the market is expected to follow the other two as it was approved too late to gain share in the largest pharmacies, the company said.
“This is not a flu shot,” said BMO analyst Evan Seigerman. “A shot you don’t take over and over again, it’s not an annuity.”