Duquesne Family Office founder and hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller said if you put a gun to his head, the guess is that former President Donald Trump beats Vice President Kamala Harris in next month’s election.
“Thank God there weren’t any [a gun] in my head so this doesn’t matter; “I think Trump is the favorite to win the election,” said the billionaire macro investor when interviewed BloombergSonali Basak this week. “It’s a developing situation and if you had asked me this 12 days ago, I would have said, ‘I don’t know, it’s still a tough result and I’m not sure who will win the championship. election.'”
But now, the market seems very confident that Trump will win, he said. Deregulated industries would likely benefit from Trump or outperform other companies, he said.
Druckenmiller’s investment career spanned three decades, with average annual returns of approximately 30%, including during the 2008 financial crisis. He is known for his analysis of economic trends and monetary policy as a basis for investment strategies as well as his ability to navigate varying market conditions. He made big, calculated bets based on this thinking, even when his theory conflicted with market momentum.
If Trump wins the presidential election, Druckenmiller said, there will likely be a “red sweep.”
“Personally, I think anyone who voted for Trump probably won’t change their vote to vote for a Democrat in Congress,” he added. If that scenario plays out, the economy will probably be stronger in about three to six months, he said, and he plans his investment strategy accordingly. It’s likely the Fed will be much more hawkish than it was under Harris, he said.
But for Druckenmiller, he didn’t choose either candidate. He believes their industrial policies are just as bad for free market capitalism, and Harris’s policies are also “worse” for business and regulation.
“But to be honest, I grew up in America with a certain model of president—George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Ronald Reagan were some of the presidents in my life who had a certain dignity and demeanor in office,” he said. “And I’m not judging anyone who wants to vote for Trump, but to me, that’s just a red line, so I’ll probably write someone when I get to the polls.”
